What to know about Russia’s plans to stage referendums in Ukraine

Western officers have panned them as a sham. In an tackle to the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday, President Biden accused Russia of “extremely significant” violations of the U.N. constitution. And analysts warn that annexing the territories might allow Moscow to label Ukrainian assaults on these areas as assaults on Russia itself, elevating the specter of a retaliatory nuclear strike.

Here’s what we know about Russia’s annexation plans and their implications for Ukraine and its allies.

Russia moves toward annexing Ukraine regions in a major escalation

What will we know about Russia’s plans to stage referendums in Ukrainian areas?

In near-synchronized bulletins, officers in the self-declared “republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk in jap Ukraine and in the occupied area of Kherson in the south stated Tuesday they might maintain “referendums” from Sept. 23 to Sept. 27 on becoming a member of Russia. A staged vote can also be to be held on the identical dates in elements of Zaporizhzhia managed by Russian forces — together with Enerhodar, the place Ukraine’s largest nuclear energy plant is situated.

Altogether, the Russia-occupied areas set to maintain staged votes this month make up almost 15 p.c of Ukraine’s complete territory, in accordance to the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia’s occupation authorities have stated for months that they might maintain such votes. But plans accelerated after Ukraine’s army victories this month. Separatist officers in jap Ukraine pleaded Monday for urgent measures that may permit Moscow to instantly annex the territories.

Moscow acknowledged the separatist enclaves as unbiased earlier than the invasion in February, and Russian-backed authorities have already taken administrative measures — together with switching to the Russian ruble and distributing Russian passports — to carry residents of occupied Ukraine nearer to Russia. Annexation would formalize Moscow’s management.

The United States warned in July that Russia was taking steps towards annexing elements of Ukraine, and that Moscow’s plan would probably embrace calling “sham” votes.

“Russia is beginning to roll out a version of what you could call an annexation playbook,” White House spokesman John Kirby stated at a information briefing.

That playbook was honed in Crimea, which Russia invaded and illegally annexed in 2014. The Black Sea peninsula had been a part of unbiased Ukraine for greater than 20 years.

It’s unclear how precisely the staged voting would work. Denis Pushilin, the pro-Moscow chief of Donetsk, instructed Russian state information company RIA Novosti that electoral officers would go door to door, and other people would additionally give you the option to vote in designated “public spaces.” On the final day, residents can be ready to vote at polling cubicles.

The final result, although, is preordained. If the staged referendum in Crimea is any indication, voting will happen underneath armed guard or stress from pro-Russian officers, with out credible worldwide observers. The whole course of can be underneath the management of the Russian authorities and occupying forces. The official outcome in Crimea in 2014: 97 p.c of voters allegedly backed becoming a member of Russia.

What is Moscow’s technique?

The speedy mobilization of Russian-backed officers round annexation comes after Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaimed massive swaths of territory in northeastern Ukraine that Russian forces had seized early in the struggle.

The “referendum” plans unveiled this week seem to mark a “new phase of the war,” stated Natalia Savelyeva, a fellow on the Center for European Policy Analysis. “They’re signs that the Russian regime doesn’t feel very comfortable.”

Hard-liners in Russia have demanded a more durable method to the struggle, and so they cheered calls this week for annexation.

Russia’s army management over the areas it has occupied is shaky, and the sham referendums are seen as a political instrument to accomplish the army goal of securing Moscow’s maintain.

The thought is to create the pretext of well-liked assist to justify additional army motion, Savelyeva stated. For Putin and his backers, the looks of getting authorized authority to make choices stays vital.

Some analysts raised the alarm that the deliberate referendums signaled Putin was keen to pursue an escalatory path.

Tatiana Stanovaya, an analyst with R.Politik political consultancy, stated in a Telegram put up that the upcoming votes constituted “preparation for a full-scale war,” and annexation, “an unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West: Either Ukraine retreats or nuclear war.”

In a not-so-veiled reference to Russia’s nuclear arsenal, Putin threatened Wednesday to “use all the means at our disposal” to shield Russian territory, as he defines it. “This is not a bluff,” he stated.

How have Ukraine and allies reacted?

Ukraine and Western international locations haven’t acknowledged the annexation of Crimea, and so they don’t intend to acknowledge any absorption of different illegally annexed areas into Russia, both.

“Russia has been and remains an aggressor illegally occupying parts of Ukrainian land,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted.

The nation’s NATO allies, in the meantime, blasted Russia’s obvious annexation and mobilization plans as escalatory.

“The United States will never recognize Russia’s claims to purportedly annexed territory,” White House nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan stated Tuesday. U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink referred to as the introduced measures “signs of weakness.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg decried the deliberate referendums as illegitimate and referred to as for elevated assist for Ukraine. The European Union threatened penalties for Russia.

The Kremlin’s strikes coincide with the convergence of world leaders for the annual U.N. General Assembly normal debate in New York. At its opening session Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron stated Russia “must see that it cannot impose its will militarily,” even when there are “pretend referendums in territories that have been bombed and continue to be occupied.” Biden decried Russia’s strikes Wednesday.

It stays to be seen what further assist — army or in any other case — international locations may provide to Ukraine. National safety officers in the Biden administration indicated last month that the United States would proceed to again the Ukrainian army if it tried to retake territory illegally annexed by Russia.

Biden, in the meantime, warned Putin over the weekend not to use a nuclear weapon. “Don’t. Don’t. Don’t,” he stated on the CBS information present “60 minutes.” “It would change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.”

The referendums will not be probably to gradual Ukraine’s army agenda. “There are powerful incentives for Ukraine to continue to attack this territory,” stated Dara Massicot, senior coverage researcher on the Rand Corp. “The Russian military is at its weakest point right now.”

Robyn Dixon in Riga, Latvia, Karoun Demirjian in Washington, Emily Rauhala in Brussels and Annabelle Timsit in London contributed to this report.