For Ukraine, a peace deal with Russia is not just about stopping the war. A deal should also prevent the next one — by convincing Russia that its invasion was a costly failure.
In that context, the past week brought a lot of bad news for Ukraine. American officials conceded that Ukraine would not reclaim all of its territory or join NATO. They also said that U.S. troops would not help protect Ukraine’s borders after the war.
Maybe a truce would have eventually included those conditions. But by granting them now, the concessions push a peace deal in Russia’s favor — and may get Vladimir Putin to think that, after all of this, the war was worth the costs. “The United States is intent on ending this war,” said my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers international security. “And ending it quickly likely means trying to end it on Russia’s terms.”
Today’s newsletter looks at why Ukraine is increasingly concerned about a future Russian invasion.
Imposing costs
Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has worried that an eventual cease-fire will simply give Russia time to rebuild and come back. So Ukraine and its allies have tried to prevent this scenario through two approaches.
First, they have tried to make the war as costly as possible for Russia. On the diplomatic front, Ukraine’s allies have imposed economic sanctions on Russia. On the battlefield, Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers to death and injuries. At the same time, Ukraine has tried to retake as much territory as possible. If Russia ended the war with an economy in ruins, a colossal death toll and little new territory, it would likely look at the invasion as a mistake.
Second, Ukraine and its allies have fortified their alliances. The United States and Europe have shown their commitment to Ukraine by sending hundreds of billions of dollars in aid. Ukraine moved to join the European Union, and it wants to join NATO. A solitary Ukraine can’t fight off Russia, but a united West can.
But these approaches haven’t worked as hoped. Russia’s economy has held up surprisingly well (with China’s help). And while Putin’s armies did not manage to take Kyiv or topple the country’s government, Russia still holds about 20 percent of Ukraine, including the Russian-speaking Donbas and Crimea regions.
The U.S.-Ukraine alliance is also falling apart. President Trump’s unsolicited concessions show that America is not willing to fight as hard for Ukraine as it once was. Meanwhile, Trump has demanded that Ukraine give up its natural resources in exchange for U.S. aid and security guarantees. And he has made hostile comments about Ukraine. Yesterday, he falsely blamed it for the war. “You should have never started it,” Trump said.
For Putin, these are all signs that Ukraine’s biggest supporter won’t be there for a second round of war.
Absent America
Without the United States, Ukraine would have to rely on European support to stand against Russia.
In theory, Europe is big enough to keep Ukraine afloat in the current war. “If Europe were to get together and focus on providing artillery rounds, air defense ammunition and support for Ukraine’s domestic drones, that would allow Ukraine to hold their lines,” Julian said.
But Europe is divided, as my colleague Mark Landler reported. Consider European leaders’ recent talks about deploying soldiers in Ukraine after the war: France supported the idea. Britain conditioned its deployment on American backup. Poland said it needed to keep its forces at home to defend its own borders from Russia. Germany said these discussions were premature.
None of this inspires much confidence for Ukraine. The West has fractured and Putin knows it.
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