Tropical storm warnings have been hoisted within the northern Leeward Islands — together with Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Anguilla — and could possibly be expanded into Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands by Thursday afternoon or night. Existing watches will most likely be upgraded to warnings because the 50 mph storm churns due west at 14 mph.
Winds up to tropical storm pressure will most likely get there starting Friday evening and can accompany heavy rainfall on the order of three to 6 inches. After passing close to or over Puerto Rico, Fiona appears to curve northward, at which level a jigsaw puzzle of unsure atmospheric elements will play a west-vs.-east tug of conflict to decide the place it finally goes.
Fiona is the sixth named storm of what, till now, has been a comparatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic basin is operating at about 47.4 p.c of common for ACE, or accrued cyclone power — a measure of general storm exercise.
According to hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, it’s the slowest begin to a season since 2014, defying professional predictions of a very lively 2022 season. By comparability, the hyperactive season of 2021 had already cranked out 20 named storms and was on the verge of dipping into the Greek alphabet.
As of 11 a.m. Eastern time Thursday, the middle of Fiona was positioned about 495 miles east of the Leeward Islands and was shifting west at a typical tempo. That westward movement is predicted to proceed by means of Friday, when Fiona will ship impacts to the islands and Puerto Rico.
Maximum sustained winds had been estimated at 50 mph, and the National Hurricane Center anticipates refined strengthening to a 55 mph storm. Thereafter, a plateau in depth is predicted because it continues west. The company has requested ships inside 300 miles of the storm’s place to file and submit climate observations each three hours, which is able to help in forecasting and modeling efforts. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft shall be dispatched to examine the storm later Thursday.
On infrared satellite tv for pc imagery, Fiona is replete with deep convection, or bathe and thunderstorm exercise. That’s evidenced by the darker reds and whites, indicative of excessive, chilly cloud tops. But nearly all of the storminess is displaced to the east of its low-level circulation — discover in white the low-level cloud discipline spiraling into the middle, which is obscured by increased clouds to the east.
That lack of vertical alignment of the system is the results of westerly to northwesterly wind shear, or a change of wind velocity and/or path with altitude. It knocks the system off-kilter, and till it’s in a position to higher stack itself vertically, Fiona will battle to intensify. Strengthening isn’t actually anticipated within the near-term, as shear doesn’t look to chill out any time soon.
Eventually, the low-level middle could develop into stretched if a thunderstorm and its related updraft move over stated vortex, however whether or not that may occur earlier than arrival in Puerto Rico stays to be seen.
Fiona is predicted to convey impacts to the northern Leeward Islands starting late Friday, and its core ought to cross the archipelago someday early Saturday. A basic 3 to 6 inches of rain, with an opportunity of domestically increased quantities, is predicted. Gusty squalls with winds approaching 50 to 60 mph are probably as properly, together with harmful coastal rip currents.
From there, the American (GFS) mannequin hints that Fiona might monitor north of Puerto Rico whereas nonetheless sideswiping the northeastern fringe of the U.S. territory.
Conversely, the European mannequin simulates a monitor south of Puerto Rico and finally into Hispaniola. That might shred the storm’s circulation earlier than emergence over the waters of the southeastern Bahamas. The storm’s torrential downpours over the Dominican Republic and Haiti might properly lead to flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous areas the place there may be potential for double-digit rainfall totals.
The Hurricane Center forecast for the monitor of Fiona splits the distinction between the American and European fashions, calling for a path over Puerto Rico earlier than Fiona navigates the Mona Passage west of the island and east of Hispaniola because it begins a northward curve. The final wild card, and therefore the completely different monitor situations, is when that proper flip to the north will happen, which is determined by the power and place of excessive strain to the northeast. That excessive acts as a guardrail.
Ultimately, Fiona shall be steered to the north, the place, if it evades land and its interior core stays intact, it might start intensifying within the subsequent 5 to seven days.
Some pc mannequin simulations challenge it’s going to move ominously shut to the Eastern Seaboard, shunted west by the Bermuda High and additional lured towards the coast by approaching low strain in search of to seize it. Other fashions permit it to escape out to sea, which might pose a higher danger to Bermuda. All informed, it’s just too early to inform — however that is one you’ll need to carefully watch.
