The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, more than a decade in the making, is expected to generate over 5,000 megawatts of power when fully operational. For Ethiopia’s 120 million citizens—many of whom still lack reliable electricity—the project promises a brighter future and the chance to export surplus energy across the region.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has framed the dam as an engine for development and national pride, saying it offers opportunity rather than danger. Already, two turbines are generating electricity, and officials see the project as key to industrial growth and rural electrification.

But downstream, Egypt views the dam as an existential risk. With about 90% of its fresh water coming from the Nile, Cairo fears droughts could be devastating if Ethiopia controls the river’s flow. Egypt has long demanded binding agreements on how the dam is filled and operated, a stance supported by Sudan, though Sudan also hopes for benefits like flood control and affordable energy.

Talks over the years have failed to reach consensus, fueling tensions between the two nations. At one point, former U.S. President Donald Trump even warned the situation could lead to conflict.

Despite the disputes, independent studies suggest Ethiopia’s careful, phased reservoir filling has so far avoided major disruptions downstream, thanks in part to favorable rainfall. Inside Ethiopia, the project has become a rare source of unity in a country often divided by internal conflict.

Funded almost entirely by Ethiopians through government support, bonds, and donations, the dam is seen not just as an infrastructure project but as a statement of sovereignty. While much of rural Ethiopia still awaits connection to the national grid, leaders insist the dam will eventually transform the country’s energy landscape.

For now, however, the divide with Egypt looms large, with both sides signaling that the struggle over the Nile is far from over.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney said the recognition will depend on key reforms by the Palestinian Authority, including a commitment to hold democratic elections and exclude Hamas from any governing role.

This follows similar announcements from other global powers in recent days, all aimed at pressuring Israel toward a ceasefire and restarting the peace process. However, Israel has strongly objected, calling Canada’s decision harmful and accusing it of rewarding terrorism.

The Prime Minister cited several reasons behind this policy change: the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the deadly attacks on Israel in October 2023. He emphasized that the suffering in Gaza has become unbearable, and the current peace approach has failed.

While reaffirming Canada’s long-standing support for a two-state solution, Carney said the situation had reached a point where the idea of a future Palestinian state was slipping away. “We cannot stand by as this possibility disappears before our eyes,” he said.

The recognition will be made official during the upcoming UN General Assembly. Carney also confirmed he had personally spoken with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss the plans.

Under the proposed conditions, any future Palestinian state must be demilitarised and governed through a reformed Palestinian Authority, which currently holds control over parts of the West Bank. The Gaza Strip remains under Hamas control, and neither region has held elections since 2006.

Criticism of Canada’s decision has come from several corners, including Israel’s government and opposition leaders at home. Some believe the move sends the wrong message following the deadly events of October 2023. Still, pressure had been mounting, with many urging Canada to act in line with its international allies.

A recent open letter signed by nearly 200 former diplomats called on the government to respond to what they described as the ongoing displacement, bombardment, and humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Carney stated that Canada makes its own foreign policy decisions, though the timing closely follows announcements by close allies. If implemented, Canada’s move would leave the United States as the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that has yet to recognise Palestinian statehood.

The conflict remains deeply complex. While the initial Hamas attack last year resulted in over 1,200 Israeli deaths and the taking of hostages, the military response has led to tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties and growing international alarm over the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

The global debate around Palestinian statehood continues to intensify, and Canada’s upcoming recognition is likely to fuel both diplomatic efforts and tensions in the months ahead.

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