One of Russia’s most distinguished TV hosts fumed this week at what he noticed as an act of defiance from allies within the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s reply to NATO.

Driving the information: While Belarus voted in opposition to a UN resolution calling on Russia to pay Ukraine struggle reparations, Russia’s different 4 treaty allies — Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — all abstained.

• “NATO countries have all lined up, looking at [President] Biden with adoring eyes,” TV host Vladimir Solovyov lamented. “What do we have?”

The massive image: Central Asian nations have cautiously distanced themselves from Moscow because the invasion of Ukraine.

• At current regional summits, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon demanded extra “respect,” and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov saved Vladimir Putin ready earlier than a gathering, Nikkei Asia reports.
• But nowhere is the shift extra notable than in Kazakhstan, which shares the second-longest land border with Russia and has retained shut hyperlinks with Moscow because the collapse of the USSR.

Meanwhile: Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who is predicted to win a brand new seven-year time period in elections this weekend, has repeatedly refused to again Russia’s invasion.

• In June, he went as far as to declare — whereas sharing a stage with Putin — that Kazakhstan revered “territorial integrity” and wouldn’t observe Russia in recognizing the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk in japanese Ukraine.
• Kazakhstan canceled a parade in May marking the Soviet victory over the Nazis, formally for funds causes. Astana additionally banned army symbols just like the “Z” displayed by backers of the invasion.

The different facet: Another Russian TV host, Tigran Keosayan, fumed after these strikes that if Kazakhstan thought it might “get away” with such “ingratitude,” it ought to “look at what is happening in Ukraine.”

• Former President Dmitry Medvedev’s account on Russia’s VK social community posted after which deleted a declare that the “artificial state” of Kazakhstan was committing a “genocide” in opposition to its Russian minority. Medvedev later claimed to have been hacked. Other senior politicians have made similar statements.
• In June, a Russian courtroom ordered the pipeline by way of which 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports move to the Black Sea to halt operations as a result of threat of spills — although many speculated the true motive was to remind Kazakhstan of its reliance on Russia.
• The order reportedly upset China, which has invested closely in Kazakhstan and advantages from a secure oil market. It was quickly reversed.

State of play: Kazakhstan is working to diversify its export routes and has hosted the presidents of China, Turkey and the European Council all prior to now two months — an indication that the world’s tenth largest oil exporter has choices.

• “In order to continue to attract foreign direct investment, it is crucial that Kazakhstan not be lumped together with Russia,” Annette Bohr, a Eurasia analyst at Chatham House, said at a current panel dialogue.

• The Ukraine invasion additionally sparked fears in most people that Kazakhstan might be subsequent, added Bhavna Dave, a Central Asia skilled on the University of London. Just this week, a live performance in Almaty by Russian singer Polina Gagarina was canceled after on-line protests over her assist for the struggle.

A senior Kazakh official told Reuters that if Tokayev wins simply on Sunday, he might additional distance himself from Moscow.

• That’s a outstanding flip of occasions lower than a 12 months after Russia sent troops to help Tokayev put down a violent rebellion.
• Yes, however: Kazakhstan and different nations in Central Asia are nonetheless closely reliant on Russia. Around 40% of the meals and clothes bought in Kazakhstan comes from Russia, and the Kremlin can nonetheless maintain Kazakhstan’s power exports hostage, notes the Carnegie Endowment’s Temur Umarov.

Zoom out: The UN vote that infuriated Solovyov additionally underscored that Russia has companions far past the post-Soviet area. China voted with Russia, as did Iran and North Korea, that are reportedly offering weapons for Russia’s struggle effort.

• Among the opposite sure votes had been 5 African nations, together with two — Central African Republic and Mali — which can be hosting Russian mercenaries.

Almaty, Kazakhstan
CNN
 — 

Vadim says he plunged into despair final month after Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced a navy draft to ship lots of of 1000’s of conscripts to combat in Ukraine.

“I was silent,” the 28-year-old engineer says, explaining that he merely stopped speaking whereas at work. “I was angry and afraid.”

When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine started in February, Vadim says he took to the streets of Moscow to protest – however Putin’s September 21 order to draft not less than 300,000 males to combat felt like a degree of no return.

“We don’t want this war,” Vadim says. “We can’t change something in our country, though we have tried.”

He determined he had just one possibility left. Several days after Putin’s draft order, he bid his grandmother a tearful farewell and left his residence in Moscow – probably without end.

Vadim and his good friend Alexei traveled as quick as they might to Russia’s border with the previous Soviet republic of Kazakhstan, the place they waited in line for 3 days to cross.

“We ran away from Russia because we want to live,” Alexei says. “We are afraid that we can be sent to Ukraine.”

Both males requested not to be recognized, to shield family members left behind in Russia.

Last week, in Kazakhstan’s industrial capital Almaty, they stood in keeping with greater than 150 different recently-arrived Russians exterior a authorities registration middle – a part of an exodus of draft dodgers.

More than 200,000 Russians have streamed into Kazakhstan following Putin’s conscription announcement, in accordance to the Kazakh authorities.

And it isn’t onerous to spot the brand new Russian arrivals on the major railway station in Almaty. Every hour, it appears, younger Slavic males emerge from the prepare sporting backpacks, trying barely dazed whereas consulting their telephones for instructions.

They arrive from cities throughout Russia: Yaroslavl, Togliati, St. Petersburg, Kazan. When requested why they’ve left all of them say the identical factor: mobilization.

“It’s not something I want to participate in,” says a 30-year outdated laptop programmer named Sergei. He sat on a bench exterior the prepare station together with his spouse, Irina. The couple, clutching backpacks and rolled up sleeping pads, stated they hoped to journey on to Turkey and hopefully apply for Schengen visas to Europe.

Most of the brand new Russian exiles spoke to CNN on situation of anonymity.

Giorgi, a author in his late 30s from Ekaterinburg, says he fled to Kazakhstan final week after struggling panic assaults on the thought he may very well be dragged into the navy.

“How can I take part in a war without a wish to win this war?” he asks.

He is now making an attempt to discover an condo in Almaty and hopes that his spouse and younger son can go to him within the winter.

Faced with the problem of making an attempt to make a dwelling in a international metropolis, Giorgi acknowledges that his hardships pale compared to Ukrainians, who had been pressured to flee by the tens of millions after Russia attacked their cities and cities.

Unlike Ukrainians, who combat bravely for his or her homeland, Giorgi says Russian draft dodgers like himself could be seen as each “a refugee and an aggressor” by advantage of their citizenship.

“I did not support his war, I never did,” Giorgi says. “But somehow I’m still connected with the state because of my passport.”

The new Russian exiles will not be technically refugees, partially as a result of the Russian authorities nonetheless isn’t formally at war with Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, Russia is conducting a “special military operation” against its Ukrainian neighbor.

Russian residents are at present ready to enter Kazakhstan for brief durations with their nationwide ID playing cards – and the Central Asian nation’s President has urged his compatriots to welcome the brand new arrivals.

“Most of them are forced to leave because of the hopeless situation. We must take care of them and ensure their safety,” stated President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in late September.

An casual grassroots effort has sprung up throughout Kazakhstan to assist quickly feed and home the Russians.

“They are running, they are afraid,” says Ekaterina Korotkaya, an Almaty-based journalist who helped coordinate help to newly-arrived Russians.

Almira Orlova, a nutritionist primarily based in Almaty, says she has helped discover housing for not less than 26 Russians.

“They would arrive to my apartment, stay for a while, then stay in the apartments of my friends,” she says.

But she factors out that she didn’t obtain the identical hospitality when she moved together with her Russian husband to Moscow a number of years in the past.

Then, Russian landlords repeatedly refused to hire her residences as a result of she was “Asian,” she stated.

“When I told them that I’m Kazakh, they said ‘I’m sorry I really cannot.’ And we weren’t able to find an apartment for two months,” Orlova says.

“Citizens of Central Asia who went to Russia for labor migration purposes face some serious discrimination in Russia,” says Kadyr Toktogulov, former ambassador of Kyrgyzstan to the United States and Canada.

The former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan has additionally seen a big “reverse migration” of Russians fleeing the draft.

“I don’t think that Russians coming to Central Asia that are fleeing the draft will be having the same kind of problems or facing the kind of discrimination that citizens of Central Asian republics have been facing for years in Russia,” says Toktogulov.

Toktogulov says his circle of relatives not too long ago rented out an condo within the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek to a newly-arrived Russian man.

Real property specialists say the flood of Russian exiles have already despatched rents skyrocketing in Almaty, the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek and different cities within the area.

The influence can be being felt in industrial actual property, as many Russians search to work remotely.

“It’s not only individuals coming, the big [Russian] companies and corporate business, they are moving their companies to Kazakhstan,” says Madina Abilpanova, a managing associate at DM Associates, an actual property agency primarily based in Almaty.

She says Russian firms have approached her, trying to relocate lots of of their staff in an effort to shield them from navy conscription.

“They are ready to move immediately, to pay whatever we want, but we don’t have spaces,” Abilpanova says.

She speaks to CNN at City Hub, a co-working area in central Almaty, the place the desks are full of younger Russians laboring silently on their laptops.

Abilpanova says all of those purchasers had arrived in Kazakhstan inside the previous two weeks. As she spoke, one other younger Russian man carrying an enormous backpack walked within the door. The enterprise homeowners had to flip him away as a result of there was no room.

“It’s something like a tsunami for us,” Abilpanova says. “Every day they come in like this.”

Vadim, the engineer from Moscow who not too long ago arrived in Kazakhstan, says his firm is sponsoring him and 15 different staff to switch to the agency’s Almaty workplace.

“My boss is against the [Russian] government,” Vadim says.

Unlike many different Russians who all of a sudden fled into exile, Vadim can depend on incomes a wage in the meanwhile.

But he doesn’t know when – or if – he’ll ever see his grandmother in Moscow.

“I very much hope to see her again,” Vadim says, his eyes welling up with tears.

“But I don’t know how much time she has left. I hope that I can return one day at least to bury her.”