A new report by energy consultancy CITAC reveals that Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel has dropped significantly, thanks in large part to the growing output of the massive Dangote Refinery. Along with several smaller modular refineries, it now supplies around 60% of Nigeria’s petrol needs—helping the country save billions in foreign exchange and take crucial steps toward energy independence.

This progress marks a turning point for Africa’s most populous nation, which has long spent heavily on fuel imports despite being a major oil producer.

Meanwhile, South Africa finds itself moving in the opposite direction. Ongoing refinery closures and years of underinvestment in its domestic energy infrastructure have left the country heavily reliant on imports. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, South Africa brought in 4.2 million tons of petrol—eclipsing Nigeria’s 3.1 million tons during the same period.

This dramatic reversal signals more than a shift in statistics. It’s a glimpse into the evolving energy dynamics across the continent—where countries like Nigeria are beginning to refine and retain more of their own oil resources, while others struggle to adapt to mounting infrastructure and investment challenges.

As Nigeria edges closer to energy self-sufficiency, the pressure is now on South Africa to find solutions before fuel insecurity takes a deeper toll.

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