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JEREMY MAGGS: Late yesterday, it emerged that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the Brics [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] summit in South Africa next month. He’s opting to participate virtually. The move, say some pundits, is a major setback for Putin, who has espoused his relations with the Brics countries as clear evidence that efforts to isolate him over the war in Ukraine have failed.
So let’s get you some expert perspective now, and with us is Ottilia Maunganidze from the Institute for Security Studies [ISS], and a very warm welcome to you. First of all, the decision by the Russian president, does that surprise you?
OTTILIA MAUNGANIDZE: Not so much. Of course, he’s been playing a game over the past four months or so of insisting that the Brics summit would happen in person first and that he would attend. But, of course, starting I would say in about June, it became clearer that he probably would not travel, and part of it had to do, of course, with the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group and, of course, raising questions as to whether or not Putin would leave the country at a time when his leadership is uncertain back home.
Read: Presidency says Putin will not attend Brics summit
JEREMY MAGGS: I suppose it does let South Africa off the hook in terms of having to arrest him.
OTTILIA MAUNGANIDZE: It does because, of course, the ICC [International Criminal Court] arrest warrant for Putin is still there, and the responsibility to arrest is not only on South Africa, but of course any country that can literally get their hands on him. But South Africa has had to play a tough balancing act between, of course, hosting Brics, but also being a [state party to their own statute] and being obligated to arrest him.
JEREMY MAGGS: As far as Putin is concerned, it does further isolate him though, doesn’t it?
OTTILIA MAUNGANIDZE: It does and perhaps that’s the real value of an ICC arrest warrant, which is that, at the very least, there are 123 countries in which he cannot travel. But it also means practically, it makes it extremely difficult to engage at an international level.
So yes, in terms of being isolated from the rest of the world, for sure, particularly those countries that would have to act on an ICC arrest warrant.
JEREMY MAGGS: Do you accept the justification that was put forward by South Africa’s president that arresting him had he come to South Africa, would’ve been a declaration of war?
OTTILIA MAUNGANIDZE: Well, this was in his affidavit in a court process that may or may not proceed tomorrow. Whether or not Russia would’ve invaded South Africa or attempted to do so is highly unlikely. Part of the thing I would say, quite frankly, Jeremy, that shielded South Africa from even the potential of arresting Putin is the distance. The likelihood that Russia would declare war against South Africa was quite slim.
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But of course, and I think this is the important thing here, is that Russia, particularly through the Wagner Group, is operating on the African continent and as close as our neighbouring country in Mozambique, there have been Wagner Group people operating there. So the concerns around safety and security are there, whether it would’ve escalated to a war, unlikely.
JEREMY MAGGS: This eleventh-hour diplomatic reprieve or judicial reprieve that we have been given, all well and good, but you’ll agree that to some extent, it has damaged our diplomatic reputation, though, given all the prevarication.
OTTILIA MAUNGANIDZE: I’m not sure that’s true, and I’ll take a really big step back, Jeremy, which is the obligation to arrest Putin is not only on South Africa.
To date he hasn’t been arrested and there are at least 123 ICC state parties that should effect the arrest.
What has been challenging, of course, for South Africa has been that South Africa is the host for Brics this year. So a lot of hopes erode on South Africa hosting Brics, South Africa being a member state to Brics and Putin travelling here.
But perhaps people put too many eggs into the South African basket when it wasn’t certain whether he would travel, and now we know that he won’t. So South Africa can take a big sigh of relief, but it doesn’t solve the main issue here. The main issue is there is still an arrest warrant for Putin and someone somewhere in the world will have to effect that arrest warrant, for now it’s not South Africa.
JEREMY MAGGS: What I’m also wondering is how his physical absence from the summit is going to impact the dynamics of the meeting and any decisions made come August. Will it make a material difference?
OTTILIA MAUNGANIDZE: No, it won’t. Brics is a forum, it’s not an international organisation with similar status as, for example, the United Nations. Of course, how much the [Russian] foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, can make decisions on behalf of the president, that is for Russia to decide. I’m assuming then by saying he is the one that is designated to attend, that he’s been given the authority to make decisions on behalf of Russia.
The forthcoming summit, Jeremy, is the first summit for Brics where the idea of additional membership is a little bit more concrete. So whether or not they will decide at this Brics summit or it will be a decision then that is in writing rather than in the meeting itself, on which new member states will come forward and will they be endorsed by all five Brics member states is the main issue going into this Brics summit.
JEREMY MAGGS: Ottilia Maunganidze, thank you very much indeed, from the Institute for Security Studies.
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