OPINION
In the final week we discovered ourselves going through the actuality that we don’t desire a compromised president to resign as a result of we concern that the incumbent can be even worse.
What an terrible existence. We settle for the present man and forgive his flaws and errors as a result of the different choices are terrifying. We actually do maintain our elected leaders to astonishingly low requirements.
But on the flip facet, is anybody on this mad world past reproach anymore? If a grasp of the darkish arts wished to smear any of us, there can be a smallanyana skeleton to mud off and throw on to the pile.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s authorized group has taken the Section 89 report on judicial evaluate as a result of they argue a flawed discovering can’t be used to question him. In different phrases, he isn’t compromised and the report is mistaken.
On Wednesday final week, South Africa teetered on the brink of political uncertainty but once more. All indications have been that Ramaphosa can be resigning. The speech was all however drafted and his thoughts couldn’t be modified. The rand plummeted and traders panicked. There have been frantic telephone calls about whether or not or not Cyril was going to go.
He didn’t need the job of main the nation any longer, and why would he? Ramaphosa endured two gruelling years of a COVID-19 pandemic and has been combating his personal Cabinet and get together all through his tenure. He has extra money than he is aware of what to do with and the prospects of spending his twilight years in his mansions in Fresnaye or Hyde Park or farming buffalo or enjoying golf are little doubt much more interesting.
Ramaphosa, who has at all times been guided by the Constitution, felt that the appropriate factor to do can be to exit. Ultimately he was satisfied to remain and combat as a result of if he stop, he can be handing the nation over to the forces of evil and roll again all the work that has been performed to uncaptured the state.
There was even speak of bringing again the nation’s greatest reserve president, Kgalema Mothlante, to patch the leaks.
The actual query that has quickly confronted the nation earlier than many might have anticipated is, who would finally be Ramaphosa’s successor as president? That is after all if the ANC truly wins the subsequent nationwide election in 2024. Or if, Ramaphosa is recalled, eliminated or informed to step apart earlier than then.
This is harking back to the quandary we confronted round what would occur when Mandela died.
We tend to pin the hopes and successes of our democracy on personalities and people and this has change into much more mandatory as the ruling get together has proven itself as a collective to be rotten and inept.
Historically, the ruling get together’s deputy has succeeded the president. That would imply David ‘DD’ Mabuza must step up – however he has been nearly fully absent throughout his tenure. He has appeared to have spent extra time on sick depart and finishing up mysterious visits to Russia for medical remedy than he has doing any actual work.
Allegations of prison conduct whereas he was Mpumalanga’s premier have additionally continued to stalk him. Yet, solely 5 years in the past, he was politically highly effective and an actual contender to guide the get together.
Five years is an inordinately very long time in politics in South Africa. Considering there’s a scandal a day on this neighbourhood, there are many transferring items. Alliances are shaped and frayed in response to no matter prosecution or headline occurs to be dominating that week and factional battles are often misplaced and gained.
In December 2017, the ANC was additionally making ready to go to Nasrec to elect a brand new chief. The scenario was on a knife’s edge and the nation may have swung both means between the Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma choice of what appeared at the time to be continued state seize or the CR17 promise of a brand new daybreak.
Firmly in the center as kingmaker was the Mpumalanga sturdy man ‘DD’ aka ‘The Cat’ Mabuza. Both sides ostensibly didn’t know which means he was going to leap and he was highly effective as a result of he had been in a position to develop his province considerably into what was then the second greatest voting block behind KZN.
In early December of that yr, the ANC branches in his province voted and the outcomes confounded everybody. The majority of the Mpumalanga branches – 223 – voted for a mysterious candidate referred to as ‘Unity’ to change into the president of the get together. One-hundred and twenty-three voted for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and 117 voted for Cyril Ramaphosa. It was bizarre. Everyone was confused. Mabuza was making a mockery of the course of.
Mabuza went into the Nasrec convention as the key kingmaker and energy dealer.
Ultimately he would swing the election in the direction of Ramaphosa’s camp, to the fury of the Dlamini-Zuma’s contingent. He was elected as the deputy president to Ramaphosa.
What is commonly forgotten although is that the Gauteng politician, Paul Mashatile, had tied himself to Mabuza. The two got here as a bundle deal and for that purpose Mashatile was elected as treasurer basic of the get together. It’s 5 years later and, in a means, Paul Mashatile finds himself in the same place to that which Mabuza was in final time round.
Mashatile is now filling three positions inside the high six: he holds his preliminary treasurer basic place whereas additionally appearing as secretary basic as a result of Ace Magashule was compelled to step apart amid prison fees. The deputy secretary basic, Jessie Duarte, handed away earlier this yr so Mashatile has additionally taken up that place, making him enormously influential.
But Mashatile has been reluctant to throw his full public weight behind the incumbent. Behind the scenes there’s a delicate panic brewing that he could also be enjoying either side.
Political analyst Professor Andre Duvehage has been quoted as likening the race for the ANC management to 2 canine combating over a bone, leaving a 3rd to run away with it.
“The third in this case is Paul Mashatile,” mentioned Duvenhage.
Has Mashatile overplayed his hand in the pursuits of his private ambitions to change into president? He would do effectively to study from the instance of Mabuza who has misplaced relevance and affect since being the energy dealer at Nasrec 5 years in the past.
Mashatile has additionally by no means fully cleansed himself of the smear of the so-called Alex Mafia experiences. Although by no means criminally charged, it has adopted him like a shadow.
Ronald Lamola is the presidential candidate for #NextGen; a transfer to a youthful, recent chief in a celebration reeling from its catastrophic management failures throughout State Capture and searching for to cleanse and renew itself. He has spoken publicly in defence of Ramaphosa in current days however he might not but have ample help and affect inside the get together.
There can be the choice of a stop-gap candidate for deputy president, chosen at Nasrec. It’s a compromise choice and they’d be nominated from the ground. Water and Sanitation Minister Senzo Mnchunu’s title has been put ahead. They will want 1 / 4 of the delegates at the convention to help a transfer from the ground.
This week US credit score company Fitch Ratings downplayed the alarm. It mentioned that whereas the uncertainty over the way forward for Ramaphosa is a danger for South Africa, the most certainly situation is that of a broad coverage continuity. It additionally mentioned that even when the president have been to resign, it believes “that it is more likely that a potential successor would emerge from the president’s moderate wing of the ANC rather than the [Jacob] Zuma-linked Radical Economic Transformation faction, which advocates more populist approaches”.
The whole Phala Phala saga might effectively have accelerated the decline of the ANC as the nation appears to the nationwide elections in 2024, which implies Ramaphosa’s successor might finally be main from the opposition benches.
There is so much to play for over the subsequent few days and as we all know from expertise, something can nonetheless occur in the ANC.