New car value will increase in South Africa – which, surprisingly, have lagged the nation’s rising inflation price – are actually surging.
The newest TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index launched on Monday (5 December)) exhibits that the speed of improve in new car prices accelerated to six.8% within the third quarter of 2022 from 3.8% within the third quarter of 2021.
This follows the speed of change in new car prices surprisingly declining to three.9% within the second quarter of this 12 months, from 6% within the first quarter.
Although the speed of improve in new car prices surged considerably within the third quarter, it’s decrease than headline client inflation, which edged as much as 7.6% in October (September: 7.5%), after hitting a 13-year excessive of seven.8% in July.
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Source: TransUnion Q3 2022 Vehicle Pricing Index
During JSE-listed car retailer Combined Motor Holdings’ interim monetary outcomes presentation in October, CEO Jebb McIntosh forecast that new car prices had been anticipated to extend by as much as 10% inside the subsequent 4 months.
However, Toyota South Africa Motors dismissed this forecast, with president and CEO Andrew Kirby stating that Toyota believed that from a complete business perspective there would in all probability be reasonable client value index- (CPI-) associated new car value will increase within the nation.
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Econometrix chief economist Dr Azar Jammine on Friday attributed the sharp acceleration in new car prices to the numerous depreciation of the rand over the course of this 12 months, particularly towards the US greenback.
He stated new car gross sales have held up amazingly strongly this 12 months – given the rise in rates of interest and the upper general inflation price – however there’s certain to be a discount within the progress in new car gross sales due to the rise in prices.
Jammine stated new car gross sales have been supported tremendously this 12 months by elevated tourism, which has resulted in very robust demand for brand new autos from rental corporations.
Automotive enterprise council Naamsa final week reported that South Africa’s new car market registered its eleventh consecutive month of year-on-year progress in November, with year-to-date gross sales, at 486 895 models, now 13.6% increased than the corresponding 11-month interval in 2021.
Market beginning to ‘normalise’
TransUnion Africa vp of auto info options Kriben Reddy stated the brand new car market is exhibiting indicators of normalising as provide ranges stabilise, however that this is probably not sufficient to keep at bay a potential slowdown in car gross sales as shoppers look to chop discretionary spend within the face of inflationary pressures and rising rates of interest.
“The challenge the industry faces is that now that dealers have largely solved supply issues; there’s going to be an increasing demand problem as the effects of inflation and interest rates start to bite into consumer wallets,” stated Reddy.
“A moderation in transport inflation, thanks to fuel price decreases in August and September [and October, but with increases in November and December], offset a build-up in food and clothing price pressures. But we expect price inflation to remain sticky at elevated levels.”
Consumers beneath stress
Reddy stated TransUnion’s newest Consumer Pulse examine revealed that greater than half of South African shoppers have reduce on their spending and count on to chop discretionary spending even additional within the coming months.
“One consequence of this is that consumers will hold onto their cars for longer and the industry is going to have to get creative to get them back into the market,” stated Reddy.
Transunion stated the speed of improve in used car prices rose to 9% within the third quarter this 12 months, from 5.9% within the third quarter of 2021.
It stated the ratio of used to new autos offered shifted considerably within the third quarter.
Reddy stated a 12 months in the past, 2.41 used autos had been offered for each new car, however this declined to 2.1 within the third quarter of 2022.
“In the used vehicle market, 25% of cars sold were less than two years old and this continues to decrease as the supply of quality used vehicles remains under pressure,” he stated.
Jammine attributed the decline in used car gross sales relative to new car gross sales to the scarcity of high quality used autos and the next improve in used car prices, which makes the worth proposition of buying a brand new car extra engaging.
