As the nation reels under 4 days of fixed Stage 6 load shedding (and counting), Eskom has been resolute in following its deliberate maintenance schedule, though this removes extra technology capability from service.
On Wednesday, it had 5 739MW of capability offline because of maintenance when Stage 6 kicked in “until further notice”. It ran higher-than-normal maintenance all through the festive interval, with this peaking within the closing week of the 12 months at 17% of its put in capability – equal to about 8 000MW.
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While it’s tempting to argue that maintenance must be deferred in order that coal models might be run (even at decreased capability) to maintain the lights on, Eskom executives argue that this technique will solely create even greater issues down the road.
It did nevertheless appear to – by means of all obtainable coal models– in an effort to keep away from load shedding on Christmas Day, as this text explains.
Last 12 months, Eskom shared charts that present it reduce total maintenance of its coal fleet dramatically between 2016 and 2018.
Read: These 4 charts present the Eskom disaster is simply starting
Obviously, the vitality availability issue (EAF; a measure of obtainable producing capability) of its energy stations soared – to almost 80% (from under 75% earlier than this modification in tack).
Plainly, this was unsustainable.
Impact
Some of the problems at Eskom’s fleet at the moment might be traced again to the shortage of maintenance 5 years in the past.
Since his appointment in December 2019, outgoing Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has prioritised the utility’s reliability maintenance restoration programme, in an effort to show across the efficiency of its ageing energy stations.
This took a while to ascertain and implement; by September 2020, Eskom had accepted all outage capex till the present monetary 12 months (FY2023). Long lead instances on spares (and the supply of funds) meant that sure tasks might solely be executed years later.
Source: Eskom weekly system standing studies
Eskom’s personal information from the final 4 calendar years exhibits that whereas there was a noticeable bounce within the quantity of maintenance in 2020 (following De Ruyter’s appointment), this has since slowly trended down.
In the 12 months previous to him becoming a member of, the annual common for deliberate maintenance was 9.94% of put in capability. In 2020, this jumped to 11.24% earlier than declining to 10.8% in 2021 and to 10.61% final 12 months. It have to be famous that 2020 was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and regardless of Eskom being designated a vital service, sure maintenance tasks had been deferred.
Breakdowns (the so-called unplanned outage issue) are up by nearly 50% from across the 20% degree in 2020 to almost 30% final 12 months.
This translated to a file 12 months of load shedding, with energy cuts on 208 days in 2022 (together with near-continuous load shedding between early September and New Year’s Eve).
Source: Eskom weekly system standing studies
Eskom’s EAF (unaudited) was simply 58% final 12 months – the primary time it has dropped beneath 60%. For the coal fleet, this quantity was beneath 50%.
| Planned maintenance | 2021 | 2022 |
| Quarter 1 | 12.99% | 12.43% |
| Quarter 2 | 7.93% | 8.26% |
| Quarter 3 | 10.19% | 9.38% |
| Quarter 4 | 11.84% | 12.36% |
| Annual | 10.8% | 10.6% |
Impressive, however …
On paper, the numbers for Eskom’s maintenance in the previous few weeks of the 12 months look spectacular.
In the final week of November, solely 9% of its fleet (on common) was offline because of maintenance. By the top of the 12 months, this had almost doubled to 17% (versus 13.8% in 2021).
In the primary week of 2023, this above common degree was sustained with roughly 14% of the fleet out of service due to maintenance.
Still, it is very important observe that Koeberg Unit 1 started a long-term outage for its steam generator alternative on 10 December.
This removes round 900MW of capability from the grid and, due to its measurement, will distort the deliberate outage issue; it is the same as between (almost) one and 4 coal models, relying on the ability station.
Also, Koeberg Unit 2 was offline for prolonged maintenance and refuelling for a lot of the 12 months (between January and September), additional inflating the maintenance figures for 2022.
Unit 1 might be out of service till midyear, whereafter Unit 2 might be taken offline for its steam generator alternative (a significant undertaking for its life extension, which was deferred by Eskom from final 12 months). Both models have to have this work executed by 2024 to ensure that their working licences to be renewed by the regulator. (This may even make the maintenance determine for 2023 seem greater than regular).
Finally, a full 720MW from Medupi Unit 4 has been included within the deliberate maintenance figures from September 2021. This unit was blown to smithereens in an accident in August that 12 months. Ordinarily, Eskom must rely this as a breakdown but it surely shifted it to ‘planned maintenance’ as there isn’t any prospect of this producing capability being returned to service from what it euphemistically calls a “long term forced outage” earlier than August 2024.
The distortion from Medupi 4 makes the maintenance image look rather a lot higher than it truly is.
One might contend that it’s exactly due to the long-term outages at Koeberg that it didn’t have the headroom final 12 months (and received’t within the subsequent 18 months) to do as a lot maintenance on the coal fleet because it wants or desires to.
Plan vs progress
The figures nevertheless don’t lie …
In its final monetary 12 months (to 31 March 2022), Eskom accomplished 47 of the 84 outages under its reliability maintenance restoration programme. An extra seven had been being executed at year-end, and it executed an extra 47 short-term outages. One was cancelled and 29 deferred to this monetary 12 months because of “funding and capacity constraints as well as execution challenges”.
In the present monetary 12 months it had, by the top of September, accomplished 16 and was busy executing 13 of its 79 outages under the programme. Seven had been cancelled, 16 had been deferred to inside the fiscal, eight to FY2024, and 19 had been remaining.
To flip round efficiency of its coal fleet, these numbers merely have to enhance on these from prior years. We will know by May how nicely it has fared in opposition to its plan.
Regardless, as a result of any good points from improved ranges and high quality of maintenance will solely be seen within the years forward, De Ruyter received’t be round to take the credit score.
Perhaps the ‘new’ minister will.
Read: If electrical energy technology signifies financial exercise, SA has collapsed