As Nigerians inch nearer to the February 2023 presidential election, the seventh since the present wave of liberal democracy formally began in 1999, there are at the least 10 key points which might be prone to drive and decide the outcome. Political scientist, Jideofor Adibe, explores all of them.
Here are the ten components:
Ethnicity and regionalism
Four of the 18 presidential candidates in the election, thought to be the entrance runners, come from the three dominant ethnic teams in the nation: Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo.
From the north are Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president of the nation (1999-2007) and the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party; and Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Yoruba from the south-west, is the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress. Peter Obi, an Igbo from the south-east and former governor of Anambra State, is the presidential candidate of the Labour Party.
Since the 1999 election, there was an unwritten conference that presidential energy will rotate each eight years between the northern and southern components of the nation. That’s why many people and teams from each the north and the south insist that President Muhammadu Buhari should be succeeded by somebody from the south.
Some people and teams from the south-east additional argue that as a result of the zone has not but produced a president, it ought to get its flip in 2023.
Some from the north-east, the place Atiku comes from, equally argue that it ought to be their flip since the zone has not produced a nationwide head since Tafawa Balewa, the nation’s first and solely prime minister, in the Sixties.
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Nigeria’s faith
Just like ethnicity and regionalism, faith has all the time been an vital software of mobilisation and discord in Nigeria.
Since 1999 there has additionally been a cautious balancing act to make sure that the president and the vice-president don’t share the similar faith. While the north is predominantly Muslim, the south is predominantly Christian.
This stability was upset when Bola Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim, selected Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri Muslim and former governor of Borno State, as his working mate. Many Nigerians and teams, together with the Christian Association of Nigeria strongly condemned the ticket.
Emergence of ‘viable’ third drive events
Until 2015, Nigeria’s political panorama was dominated by one occasion – the People’s Democratic Party. It was the solely occasion robust sufficient to win presidential elections.
This modified in 2015 when the All Progressives Congress, a coalition of opposition events, defeated the sitting president, Goodluck Jonathan. This heralded an period of a two-party dominant state.
The emergence of the Labour Party and the New Nigeria People’s Party appears to have modified the electoral dynamics.
Obi frames his marketing campaign on anti-establishment rhetoric and is subsequently in a position to entice a horde of annoyed younger voters. As the solely Christian amongst the 4 main candidates, Obi may additionally profit electorally from Christians against Muslim-Muslim ticket of the ruling APC. At least three opinion polls confirmed him main the race, although some have questioned the credibility of these polls.
Kwankwaso, founding father of the Kwankwasiya motion, is thought to be a grassroots organiser. He is believed to be standard with peculiar individuals in the north however is assumed to lack a robust following in the south.
Nigeria’s burden of historical past
Obi’s candidacy has been endorsed by Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the pan-Igbo socio-political organisation, and a few influential non-Igbo teams and people, together with former president Olusegun Obasanjo.
In the south-east area, there’s a deeply ingrained perception that there’s a conspiracy to exclude the Igbo from sure key political positions in the nation due to their position in the Civil War (1967-1970). This perception has helped gas secessionist agitations. Though the political elite of the area have remained aloof or lukewarm to Obi’s candidacy, he’s actually deified by peculiar individuals in the area who’re excited by the “audacity” of his candidacy.
Presidential debates
In latest years, varied teams have been organising debates for key political contestants in the nation. Tinubu, touted as a grasp tactician by his supporters, has managed to evade these debates. After a speech to an viewers in the UK in December 2022, he left it to his aides to answer most of the questions he was requested.
I’ve argued elsewhere that presidential debates do probably not have an effect on the outcome of presidential elections. In reality main candidates usually refuse to participate in some or all of such debates. But Tinubu’s non-appearance accentuates suspicions about his well being and a number of other controversies round him.
Nigeria’s independence of the electoral umpire and the new Electoral Act
The independence of the Independent National Electoral Commission has lengthy been contested. Incidents like the burning or stealing of a few of the fee’s supplies, faux names on the electoral register and under-age registrations in some components of the nation elevate questions on its doable connivance.
The 2022 Electoral Act launched improvements like the digital transmission of outcomes from the polling items and the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System. These had been meant to curb rigging. But some political forces are believed to be against their use.
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Insecurity
The common insecurity in Nigeria might make it troublesome, if not not possible, to conduct credible elections in some components of the nation. That could have an effect on the electoral fortunes of candidates who regard such areas as their strongholds.
Money throughout elections
Money is essential in any election, particularly in Nigeria, the place the excessive stage of poverty implies that individuals want monetary assist earlier than they will even attend marketing campaign rallies. Vote-trading has additionally develop into a distinguished function of elections. Despite measures to enhance the transparency of the electoral system, it’s probably that cash will stay a giant think about the 2023 election.
Crises and schisms inside the events
Nigerian political events are inclined to be particular objective autos for profitable elections or positioning people for political appointments. That’s why there tends to be sharp divisions and crises inside events, even the smaller ones. The diploma of cohesiveness of the frontline political events will have an effect on their probabilities in the election.
The final issue is The unknown
In any engagement, there may be all the time an unexpected variable which can change the sport. Military tacticians name it fog of struggle whereas the religiously inclined name it the Act of God. Until the votes are counted, a victor is introduced and the inevitable court docket challenges are resolved, there may be nonetheless the chance of an occasion that could alter the election’s outcome.
Article by: Jideofor Adibe. Professor of International Relations and Political Science, Nasarawa State University, Keffi
This article is republished from The Conversation beneath a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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