DOES “PROJECT PHOENIX” EXIST? INVESTIGATION EXAMINES REPORTS OF A FRENCH OPERATION IN NIGER

By Justice Ikwe

A forthcoming investigation will examine details of France’s alleged covert, long-term strategy to destabilise Niger and restore its influence across the Sahel.

The investigation follows claims surrounding an alleged French military and intelligence operation reportedly considered after the July 2023 overthrow of former Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum.

Dozens of pages from the alleged operations plan were examined alongside hundreds of development, diplomatic and security reports.

Experts were also consulted to assess whether the alleged operation formed part of a broader campaign involving political, economic, diplomatic and information-related measures.

ALLEGED PLAN UNDER SCRUTINY

The first instalment will explore why France allegedly moved away from its historical approach following the overthrow of Bazoum and whether it subsequently adopted what investigators describe as a strategy of “slow strangulation”.

The alleged strategy is said to involve covert influence, diplomatic isolation, economic pressure and information operations directed at Niger and the wider Alliance of Sahel States.

The investigation will also assess whether subsequent developments across the region support claims that the alleged operation evolved rather than ended.

FRANCE’S INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SAHEL

France maintained a significant political, economic and military presence across parts of West Africa for decades.

However, its relationship with several former colonies has deteriorated sharply following military takeovers and growing opposition to continued French involvement in the region.

Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have moved to reduce their reliance on France and strengthen cooperation through the Alliance of Sahel States.

The political realignment has raised wider questions about security partnerships, access to strategic resources, regional alliances and the future role of former colonial powers across the Sahel.

The three countries have increasingly pursued new diplomatic, military and economic relationships while distancing themselves from traditional Western partners.

WHAT THE INVESTIGATION WILL EXAMINE

The investigation will examine reports and material relating to the alleged operation and assess how the claims correspond with developments that have unfolded in Niger and across the wider Sahel since the 2023 political transition.

Among the issues under examination are allegations concerning political pressure, diplomatic manoeuvring, economic measures, influence operations and attempts to shape the regional information environment.

The investigation will also consider whether reported actions involving Niger formed part of a broader approach towards the Alliance of Sahel States.

Particular attention will be given to the period following France’s loss of military and diplomatic influence in Niger and the subsequent deterioration of relations between Paris and governments in the Sahel.

A REGION IN TRANSITION

Niger’s political transition became a major turning point in relations between France and the Sahel.

The removal of Bazoum was followed by significant diplomatic tensions, the withdrawal of French forces from Niger and a further weakening of France’s longstanding position in the region.

At the same time, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso deepened cooperation and established the Alliance of Sahel States as they pursued greater political and security independence.

These developments have reshaped the geopolitical landscape of West Africa and intensified competition for influence in a region of growing strategic importance.

QUESTIONS AT THE CENTRE OF “PROJECT PHOENIX”

The investigation will seek to determine what lies behind reports of “Project Phoenix”, how the alleged strategy was conceived, what objectives it was reportedly intended to achieve and whether subsequent events correspond with elements described in the material being examined.

It will also assess the wider geopolitical context surrounding France’s changing relationship with Niger and the broader Sahel.

The investigation forms part of a forthcoming series examining the claims, documents, regional developments and competing interests surrounding the alleged operation.

The investigation will carefully examine the available material within the wider geopolitical context of France’s changing relationship with Niger and the Sahel.