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PROGRAMMING NOTE: National Security Daily gained’t publish from Monday, Aug. 29, to Friday, Sept. 2. We’ll be again on our regular schedule on Tuesday, Sept. 6, after the vacation.
Rumors are swirling round Washington that the United States has supplied Ukraine with extra weapons than the administration has introduced publicly.
On Friday, a senior Pentagon official stated the U.S. had been quietly supplying the Ukrainians with High-speed Anti-Radiation missiles — used for concentrating on radar methods — for some time. “[W]hen we first announced the initial provision of HARM missiles, the way that we characterized it in the announcement was not specific. We described that we were providing a counter-radar capability,” the official said.
Two days later, Yahoo! News printed a narrative that argued the latest assaults on Russian targets in Crimea weren’t the results of particular operations groups carrying explosives, as Ukraine suggests. Instead, the blasts have been the results of long-range missile strikes, former U.S. particular operators instructed MICHAEL WEISS and JAMES RUSHTON. But Ukraine doesn’t have any missiles with the vary to strike Saki air base in Crimea, they famous — a minimum of not with the missiles America and its companions publicly say they transferred.
One chance, per Weiss and Rushton, is that the U.S. has secretly despatched the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to Ukraine. If true — and it’s not clear that it’s — that may go towards what the administration has stated publicly. In July, nationwide safety adviser JAKE SULLIVAN instructed the Aspen Security Forum that sending these missiles would additional provoke Russia and probably instigate World War III.
Okay, so possibly NatSec Daily was overthinking issues. But then in the present day, two folks conversant in the transfer stated the U.S. included Excalibur precision-guided munitions in the Aug. 19 weapons package deal, regardless that the administration didn’t publicly announce them. Furthermore, a doc despatched by the administration Friday to lawmakers, and seen by NatSec Daily, lists what was in the newest $775 million package, noting that what goes to Ukraine isn’t “limited” to what’s featured in the notification.
We admit that is all hypothesis. No member of the administration confirmed and even hinted that there have been secret shipments of weapons to Ukraine. Even if there have been, there’s little to no likelihood they’d share a labeled determination with us.
But if there’s something to the secret-weapons concept, some specialists can be supportive of the more-quiet method. “It’s gratifying that the administration appears to be talking less and doing more in terms of the weapons transfers. That’s good because it gives the Russians a little bit of uncertainty about what we’re doing,” stated the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ TOM KARAKO.
The whispers about the U.S. giving Ukraine greater than it lets on are solely rising, not dying out. We’ll keep on it to see if it’s a part of the D.C. rumor mill or there actually is one thing to it.
9,000 UKRAINIAN TROOPS DEAD: About 9,000 Ukrainian troops have died since Russia’s invasion started on Feb. 24, the prime Ukrainian navy chief stated Monday.
The determine, shared by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine VALERIY ZALUZHNYY, is a uncommon replace on Ukraine’s casualty depend.
Our personal CHRISTOPHER MILLER made two noteworthy observations. First: “Around 4,400 Ukrainian troops were killed fighting Russian forces over 8 years, between April 2014 and Feb 2022. This is double that in just 6 months,” he tweeted. Second: Zaluzhnyy “did not specify whether it refers to all branches of the Ukrainian defense (ie Army, Nat Guard, territorial defense, etc) or only Armed Forces service members.”
Earlier this month, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy COLIN KAHL said “it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months.”
FSB BLAMES UKRAINE FOR DUGINA KILLING: Russia’s FSB accused Ukrainian secret services of killing the daughter of a outstanding ultranationalist — a press release that might additional inflame tensions.
State-run media says {that a} Ukrainian girl, NATALIA VOVK, traveled to Russia in July along with her 12 year-old daughter as a way to homicide DARYA DUGINA. “On August 21, after a remote-controlled explosion of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado car Dugina was driving, Vovk and her daughter left through the Pskov Region to Estonia,” per the FSB.
The FSB provided no direct evidence, Kyiv has denied any involvement and Estonia said it hasn’t had a request from Russia for help with the investigation. But if it is true — and that’s a very big if — that also means Russia’s security service just admitted to letting the murderer escape from the country.
ALEXANDER DUGIN, the slain woman’s father, is out for blood. “Our hearts are not simply thirsting for revenge or retribution,” he wrote in a statement. “We only need our victory [against Ukraine]. My daughter has sacrificed her young life on the altar of victory. So please win!”
U.S.-ROK LIVE DRILLS: The U.S. and South Korean military began their largest live military exercises in five years Monday, ending the pause instigated by the diplomatic effort between former President DONALD TRUMP and North Korean leader KIM JONG UN.
“The drills known as Ulchi Freedom Shield are expected to involve thousands of military personnel, and will run for two weeks. The US and South Korea have said they are defensive in nature and will include exercises to coordinate forces in response to an invasion from North Korea,” Bloomberg News’ JEONG-HO LEE reported.
“Wars today are totally different from those in the past,” South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL said during a Cabinet meeting Monday, noting that the drills will include protecting important facilities like airports and semiconductor factories.
North Korea typically responds angrily to these joint exercises, claiming they are a prelude to invasion. Officials in Washington and Seoul are on the lookout for a provocation such as another missile test.
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JAPAN MISSILE DEPLOYMENTS?: Japan is trying to counter China by contemplating the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles, Reuters reported.
The weapons can be deployed in the southern a part of the nation and able to reaching China or North Korea.
Although Japan’s forces are primarily meant for guaranteeing the nation’s self-defense, per the nation’s structure, regional tensions with China and growing North Korean missile exams have pressured Japan and its allies to shore up their presence in the Pacific.
Although officers from Beijing and Tokyo met final week to debate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, relations between either side have been fraught as China fired 5 missiles into Japanese waters earlier this month.
FEARS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY ATTACKS: Ukrainian officers are sounding the alarm that there could also be Russian missile assaults on the embattled nation’s thirty first independence day on Wednesday, CNN’s TIM LISTER and JACK GUY reported.
“We must all be aware that this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, something particularly vicious,” Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY warned.
City officers inside Kyiv have already banned public occasions between Monday and Friday. The warnings come as preventing in Ukraine now stretches into its sixth month with greater than 5,000 civilian fatalities, in accordance with the UN Human Rights Office.
CHINA WARNINGS: Experts now provide dire warnings about incoming Chinese cyberattacks as tensions with Taiwan rise, our pals at Weekly Cybersecurity report.
Former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director CHRIS KREBS instructed attendees at the latest Black Hat convention in Las Vegas that any potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan would immediate cyberattacks on provide chains — which might shortly affect Americans.
“Right now, every single company out there should be conducting simulations, scenarios, impact assessments, tabletop exercises at the objective level around what’s happening around the Strait of Taiwan,” he stated. “Based on the conversations I’ve had with national security officials, they are pretty confident that is going to come to a head, with China and Taiwan.”
He’s not alone in that evaluation. “I’m sure they have access to systems,” CHRISTOPHER PAINTER, the former State Department cybersecurity coordinator, stated in an interview. “They and Russia are the two most capable state actors other than the U.S.”
ANDURIL IN UKRAINE: Tech billionaire and Anduril founder PALMER LUCKEY, sans his signature Hawaiian shirt, recently traveled to Ukraine and met with President Zelenskyy, Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV and ANDRIY YERMAK, head of the nation’s presidential workplace, to debate how Anduril merchandise can proceed supporting the warfare towards Russia.
Lattice, a counter-drone software system and Ghost, a small drone that may fly repeatedly for 60 minutes have each been utilized in Ukraine towards Russia, the firm confirmed to NSD.
During the go to, Luckey and Anduril mission operations staff members led on-the-ground coaching of the firm’s merchandise with the Ukrainian navy.
KAMIKAZE DRONES FOR UKRAINE CONTRACT: The Army is about to award AeroVironment for 10 superior and longer-range Switchblade 600 drones, Defense News’ JOE GOULD reported, including the R&D contract is anticipated in the subsequent 30 days.
“[O]bservers say the Switchblade 600′s anti-armor payload, weighing in at 30 pounds and boasting longer loiter time, would offer an even better tool for finding and striking Russian troops and equipment during Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive in southern region of Kherson,” Gould added.
GANG OF 8 WANTS TRUMP DOCS: The group of congressional leaders charged with reviewing the most delicate intelligence data has requested the Biden administration for entry to the paperwork seized from Trump’s non-public residence in Florida, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reported.
The inquiry from the so-called “Gang of 8” comes as lawmakers from each events search to be taught extra about the unprecedented investigation into the former president. And it means that Congress is unwilling to be a bystander in the political and authorized fallout following the FBI’s Aug. 8 search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach, Fla.
It follows the same request from Senate Intelligence Committee Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and Vice Chair MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), who requested the nation’s prime intelligence official to attract up an evaluation of attainable national-security dangers associated to Trump’s dealing with of the delicate paperwork.
PELOSI ACCUSED ADMIN OF ENDANGERING HER: Speaker NANCY PELOSI accused the administration of leaking particulars of her then-upcoming journey to Taiwan — endangering her in the course of.
“Any attack on me personally is not associated with the President but with some smaller anonymous voices within the administration who endangered the security of our visit by leaking the trip even before it was determined that we would indeed visit Taiwan,” she told The Washington Post on Saturday.
Let’s not mince phrases: The speaker simply stated members of Biden’s staff put her life at risk –– and he or she stated it on the report. White House officers deny that they leaked particulars of the journey planning to the press, although.
— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: STEPHANIE PSAKI is becoming a member of the National Security Council as a director for world well being response in the improvement and world well being directorate, three White House officers instructed DANIEL LIPPMAN. Psaki most just lately was senior adviser on human rights and gender fairness in the workplace of world affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services. (And, sure, she’s the former White House press secretary’s sister.)
— JEFF SOLNET is now deputy assistant secretary for strategic communications at DHS. He most just lately was a SVP at Precision Strategies.
— DAVID MONTGOMERY, The Washington Post: Can ANTONY BLINKEN Update Liberal Foreign Policy for a World Gone Mad?
— RICHARD McGREGOR, The Atlantic: XI JINPING’s Campaign of Secrecy
— MARIA SHAGINA, Foreign Policy:Technology Controls Can Strangle Russia—Just Like the Soviet Union
— The Intelligence National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.:“Coffee and Conversation with DOUG COSSA”
— The Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: “One Year Later: Reflecting on America’s Departure from Afghanistan.”
— The Association of the U.S. Army, 12 p.m.: “Countering Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems”
— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China.”
Have a natsec-centric occasion arising? Transitioning to a brand new defense-adjacent or international policy-focused gig? Shoot me an e-mail at [email protected] to be featured in the subsequent version of the e-newsletter.
And because of my editor, Ben Pauker, who says nameless sources from this text are endangering his late-night fast-food runs.
