Introduction
The fall from the height of total power was shocking; the African National Congress (ANC) saw it, but was complacent, numb! For 30 years, it bestrode the southernmost part of Africa, the 64-million-person country of South Africa, like a Colossus, calling the shots as it saddled the seat of power.
Nelson Mandela, ‘Madiba,’ left prison in 1994 but emerged with his political clout growing larger than life. With the oppressive apartheid swept aside, he stepped into the political arena under the African National Congress (ANC), and in the first multiracial, multiparty elections tucked away the presidential verdict in his favor.
After four years of leading South Africa as president, he magnanimously vacated office to let others vie for positions at the next elections. Then came the next 26 years, from President Thabo Mbeki, Jacob Zuma to Cyril Ramaphosa; governance was a mixed bag of experiences that left a largely dissatisfied polity.
The voters spoke with their voters’ cards and showed their dissatisfaction with various presidents and the ruling class. And in 2024, the ANC failed to have it ‘as usual,’ and the marriage of convenience with parties such as Democratic Alliance (DA), Patriotic Alliance (PA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), GOOD Party, FF Plus, and four others was consummated to form the Government of National Unity, GNU.
The journey so far has been bumpy and sometimes threatened to grind to a halt.
Rev Meshoe, the prophet in Parliament – his warnings
Reverend Kenneth Meshoe is a Member of Parliament, and leader of South Africa’s African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP). He had watched, like others, with keen interest the Hamas militant group’s invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023 in which more than a thousand were massacred and hundreds abducted and taken away to Gaza.
Addressing his colleagues in an unprecedented speech at the State of the Nation Address (SONA), the ACDP leader warned President Ramaphosa and others, especially the ANC, that they have crossed the red line. He was referring to the action against Israel that will incur the wrath of God and made bold to declare so in spite of being heckled in the house and being almost forced to shut up.
Meshoe said Ramaphosa had ‘cut the helm of Israel’s garment’ by his action against the Jewish state in reference to the Holy Scriptures. To many who did not buy the idea of South Africa taking Israel to The Hague for defending themselves, the ACDP leader made their day.
Watch below the disaster Israel was going through 👇
With Ramaphosa barely rescuing his presidential seat by the whiskers with the help of the GNU partner parties, the land ownership brouhaha, and the economic meltdown from Trump’s bull-in-the-China shop tariff posed threats to the country. Now, it does appear Reverend Meshoe’s parliamentary prophetic warning is coming to pass.
Crack in the GNU Marriage
Had the ANC and the chain of presidents it produced given the people governance, effective and untainted by corruption in diverse sectors, there would not be need for unnecessary compromises with unlikely bedfellows – DA, PA, IFP, and the rest of the parties.
In 2019, the ANC won 230 seats in a 400-seat National Assembly but secured only 159 in the 2024 elections. It lost the majority position and got married to these numerous political parties – a total of 10.
This coalition was bound to be on collision course sooner than later and even likely to be a recurring decimal in the five years democratic journey of Ramaphosa’s second term.
For instance, while Ramaphosa, ANC, and by extension ‘South Africa’ regard Moscow as friend and partner for its support against the apartheid regime, DA’s leader, John Steenhuisen objects strongly to this and other foreign policies issues driven by the ANC.
The government of South Africa under Ramaphosa never criticized President Putin for invading Ukraine in 2022, but has not only condemned the Jewish state for defending itself in the face of Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023 but set a genocide case against it in the International Court of Justice, ICJ, over the reprisal attack on Gaza.
As it stands, Ramaphosa and the ANC lost the autonomy to pronounce on policy issues like before the formation of the coalition.
The DA’s spokesperson on international issues, Emma Powell said the president needs to get clearance from the partners in the unity government before taking it to the media or making it public. Although DA, South Africa’s second largest party, clearly opposed ANC’s government resolve to take Israel to the International Court for alleged genocide, it agrees that the Jewish state has the right to defend itself from the Hamas attack. The party also believes a ceasefire should be in place in Gaza and the stop of illegal Israeli settlement on the West Bank and then that the 1967 borders be restored. Other political parties, members of the Coalition, also have their differences with the ANC, the leading partner.
If ANC, as lead partner of the Coalition, recognizes that it cannot wield power like before the 2024 elections, perhaps there will always be a consensus reached in dealing with diplomatic and economic issues with other members of the unity government.
Is it any wonder then that the visits made by some MP members of the unity government to Israel is likely to be done again because there will also be interests.
If things are discussed and agreed, they could be differently handled to avoid rancor and show of disagreement being displayed.
Would the GNU claim ignorance of this trip to the Middle East or is it a deliberate act to assert diverse party interests that could not be addressed in-house?
The Trump tariff weapon
Beyond being an economic tool, President Trump has deployed it as a weapon to wedge diplomatic war against those perceived as ‘adversaries’. The present White House has made clear its intention to slug it out with the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as opposers of the USD denominated international trade. South Africa has been slapped with a 30 per cent tariff by Trump in spite of the US being the second largest export destination.
A statement from Ramaphosa’s office lamented the imposition of punitive tariffs describing it as a barrier to trade and prosperity of the two Nations. South Africa wants a negotiation of the tariff in such a way as to mutually benefit both parties instead of constituting a clog in the wheel of progress.
Even as these unfold, SA, and particularly ANC is pushing to close the door against Israel by closing the embassy – an action that does not put its non-aligned posture in good stead. It is believed that actions against Israel are not likely to be taken lightly by the US government, and screwing economically hard on South Africa may just be the beginning.
Economic analysts think South Africa could yet be harder pressed as the White House goes even tougher with China, a BRICS member. The ripple effect is likely to take its toll on South Africa and countries doing business with China.
Is it possible that a visit by the MPs to Israel did not convey any subtle message to PM Netanyahu in a bid to mellow things in times like this? There could be different approaches to massaging Trump’s ego and sorting out things beyond using formal diplomatic channels.
After all, the well-known ‘the end justifies the means’ could as well play out in this visit from GNU members who are singing discordant tunes.
Conclusion
When it suits SA, and the ANC, the non-aligned diplomatic posturing comes alive. The opposite is the case when it is discomforting to it and the BRICS members. Put differently, double standards will always pay in kind sooner or later. Strategists hunt for opportunities to take advantage either for public good or mundane reasons. All said, the Coalition should put their house in order if the five-year tenure will be successfully completed. The journey has just begun.