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JEREMY MAGGS: In a televised address last night, President Cyril Ramaphosa reiterated South Africa’s non-aligned position on the Russia-Ukraine war. He was giving that address just ahead of the Brics [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] Summit that starts in Johannesburg this week.
So what can we expect from the deliberations? Commentator and foreign policy expert Professor John Stremlau is with us. Professor, it’s suggested then that Cyril Ramaphosa will try to position himself as a statesman, with much-reported mistrust from the West. Let’s start there. How do you see it?
JOHN STREMLAU: I don’t think he has much mistrust from the West. He’s got a West that’s very indulgent in him and sees that South Africa’s democracy has to succeed. His address to the UDF [United Democratic Front] 40th anniversary yesterday was a far more important address, it seemed to me, in terms of addressing the country’s real problems than is the Brics. But Brics does give him an opportunity to remind, but I don’t think it’s going to cut with voters, do you, with voters that South Africa can play an international role?
Brics is the wrong mechanism to do so, Jeremy. The African arena is the important, South Africa’s the only African member of the G20 [Group of 20] and it’s going to host the G20.
It’s the only African member of Brics, but it’s only 1.85% of the population of Brics and only 2% of the economy of Brics.
So Brics is a Western conception, it’s a big emerging market thing, and there are no Africans, other than South Africa, on the Group of 20. So the world economy is not going to pay much attention to Africa because we are all descendant from Africans. We ought to give Africa a great deal of attention, but we ought to give it to Africa for developmental reasons, not for economic reasons.
JEREMY MAGGS: Having said that, John, there is increasing interest, is there not, from various African countries to join the grouping. Is that likely to happen, and if it did, what would change within the organisation do you think?
JOHN STREMLAU: I don’t think it’s likely to happen, Jeremy, because the African economies are too small. You could have maybe the African Union be an observer of the Brics process or an appendage somehow. European Union, though, is not a good example because those are all robust economies and are suffering a lot of political diversity and polarisation because they are democratic.
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I hate to parrot President Joe Biden, but there is a division in the world between democracies and non-democracies, and that’s being acutely felt in Africa right now with the coups going on. But it’s also being felt in Europe and elsewhere and it’s not being felt in China. But China’s a civilisation nation and it’s been an authoritarian nation for three millennia, and it has upheavals of its own to contend with, like the cultural evolution, but it’s a different animal than is the most rank and file members of the United Nations.
JEREMY MAGGS: So what contribution, if any, then can South Africa make to this meeting?
JOHN STREMLAU: Well, it’s made its contribution by having it here and by attracting foreign governments. It’s a reminder of the glory days when Madiba [Nelson Mandela] strode the globe. Not because he was powerful, but because he was a great example of the importance of character and of the importance of values and the importance of democracy and as a way to avoid conflict.
The West has never paid its debt to South Africa for avoiding a race war, which would’ve, certainly in the United States, greatly complicated the healing process that is still going on from the Civil War, for crying out loud, over 100 years later.
JEREMY MAGGS: John, there’s also, it seems to me, a philosophical element attached to all of this. You have Brics’ commitment to, it says, restructure global governance institutions. What does that mean and how could that impact, if it happens, South Africa’s role on the continent and its relationship possibly with other African nations?
JOHN STREMLAU: What South Africa did in the aftermath of a peaceful resolution of the apartheid regime here was, and Thabo Mbeki really led the charge on this, to ingrain democratic values in the Constitutive Act of the African Union and to create ancillary organisations and charters like the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance that advance the consensus-based integration process to the sub-regional and regional level.
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It is a tough slog, and it lacks the political will, but it also could be backed by the industrial democracies that have the money because inequality is the great conundrum of our age, and this is the most unequal country in the world.
So you’ve got to show the flag, but showing the flag as Ramaphosa is doing, it’s an opportunity for Brics, it’s the first meeting in person since the Covid crisis. But Jeremy, your question about the reform of the international organisations is a timely one, but you’ve had the President of the Security Council, Russia, a member of Brics, invading Ukraine while sitting as President of the Security Council. Doesn’t that sort of create cognitive dissonance?
JEREMY MAGGS: John, on a more practical level, looking at the agenda, it’s going to look at trade and investment facilitation, sustainable development, innovation, global governance, all rolls off the tongue very nicely. From a business perspective and particularly from a South African and from a regional business perspective, is there any optimism here that things could improve as a result of the talks?
JOHN STREMLAU: You’re pushing me on the link between Brics and the improvement of the South African business scene. If you got Transnet fixed, it would improve the business scene enormously, obviously. Similarly, if you clean up the corruption and the malfeasance and the incompetence that has plagued since the state capture era, that would be an enormous gain too.
But you’re going to have a partnership with China that is worth cultivating and it’s worth moderating the US-China relationship in Africa for an Africa gain. That can be done independent of whether or not there is escalating tensions over technology or escalating tensions more appropriately over Taiwan. Just as the fact that the Russian conflict is a regional conflict of Europe.
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Let’s keep Africa separate and good for business and make South Africa the hub for the economic development of Africa. It’s a huge continent with a lot of economic opportunities and South Africa has a comparative advantage in Africa that clearly is of interest to the business community and should be pressed, not worrying about trading relations. Well, you can worry about the trading relations [that they need]. We sell very little to China compared to what we import from China, whereas because of Agoa [African Growth and Opportunity Act] it’s more balanced with the US.
JEREMY MAGGS: Professor John Stremlau, I’m going to leave it there. Thank you very much indeed.
