5 tropical systems in Atlantic show hurricane season is heating up

Of the five systems being tracked, two are currently tropical storms and one is a remnant tropical storm. Just eight days ago, the Hurricane Center had no disturbances to monitor in the Atlantic.

The only imminent threat to the U.S. mainland is an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that could bring tropical storm conditions — including beneficial rain but also flooding — to South Texas between late Monday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Franklin is already affecting Puerto Rico on its way toward the Dominican Republic and Haiti with potentially deadly flooding.

Three tropical cyclones formed in just 24 hours over the weekend. It was only the third time on record that that many storms formed in such a short time, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Tropical system likely to bring heavy rain to South Texas

The Hurricane Center said Monday that an area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico is likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it reaches the southern Texas and northern Mexico coast on Tuesday. A tropical storm warning was issued for South Texas south of Port O’Connor, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours, while a tropical storm watch was posted from Port O’Connor north to Sargent.

Heavy rain is expected to be the main impact in South Texas, with 2 to 3 inches of rain a good bet for locations including Corpus Christi, Laredo and Brownsville on Tuesday and Wednesday, and locally higher amounts of 5 to 7 inches possible. The National Weather Service said some flooding may occur and also warned of isolated tornadoes, a high risk of rip currents, large swells and rough surf.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet could flood normally dry areas along the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent, including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay, the Hurricane Center said. Winds are less of a concern, with the chance of tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or greater only 10 to 20 percent along the South Texas coast.

The rain will be beneficial to areas of South Texas that the latest federal drought monitor says are in moderate to severe drought. However, the more significant amounts of rain may not make it as far north as areas experiencing even worse levels of drought, which include San Antonio, Austin and Killeen, and coastal areas northwest of Corpus Christi including Houston.

The storm will bring a brief respite from this summer’s relentless heat, with high temperatures in far southern Texas in the 80s and 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday rather than the usual 100s, although the heat ramps right up again later this week.

Tropical Storm Franklin headed toward Hispaniola, spreading rain into Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Franklin formed Sunday afternoon in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to remain a tropical storm as it curves north Monday night and Tuesday and makes landfall Tuesday night into Wednesday on Hispaniola, the island that comprises the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Franklin could become a hurricane south of Bermuda by the weekend, although its track is less certain after Wednesday.

The storm, which had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph early Monday, brought an inch or more or of rain to many locations in Puerto Rico on Sunday. Portions of southern Puerto Rico could see up to 4 inches of rain through Wednesday. Flooding and damaging winds are possible along with a moderate to high risk of rip currents, the National Weather Service in San Juan said.

Much heavier rain, as much as 5 to 15 inches, could cause severe flooding and mudslides in Hispaniola.

“The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday,” the Hurricane Center said.

Elsewhere in the busy tropical Atlantic

The Hurricane Center is tracking three other tropical systems in the open ocean, none of which is likely to impact land.

• Tropical Storm Emily formed Sunday in the central Atlantic, then diminished to a tropical depression Monday morning with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The Hurricane Center expects Emily to slowly weaken over the next couple of days.
• Tropical Storm Gert was located about 455 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands early Monday with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Gert poses no threat to land and is forecast to weaken soon and dissipate Tuesday.
• The Hurricane Center predicts that a disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands is likely to turn into a tropical depression later this week as it moves west. Models suggest this system will eventually curve north and avoid affecting land, but it’s too early to say so definitively.

Atlantic tropical activity running ahead of schedule

Tropical activity in the Atlantic typically starts to pick up in late August and peak in September. Franklin was the seventh named storm of the season, and it formed about three weeks before the average date of development of the seventh named storm.

The recent uptick in activity is being fueled in part by record-warm waters in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, where the weekly average sea surface temperature exceeded 87 degrees for the first time on record, Lowry tweeted. Most hurricane experts had initially tempered their forecasts for this season because of El Niño conditions that are developing and that tend to limit storm development in the Atlantic. The latest consensus, however, is that the persistence of unusually warm ocean waters may counteract El Niño, leading to an above-average number of storms.