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JEREMY MAGGS: President Cyril Ramaphosa claims that Russia and Ukraine are willing to listen to African leaders to end the ongoing war between the two countries. African leaders concluding their peace mission at the weekend. The initiative though, was upstaged by the South African security bungle that saw an SAA (South African Airways) charter plane grounded in Poland for over 24 hours. Expert analysis coming up in just a moment, but first, this is what the president said about the trip.
PRESIDENT RAMAPHOSA: Well, I think our mission was impactful. Its real success, obviously, will be measured on the ultimate objective of stopping the war, but the impact that it has had is that one, we were listened to as we gave an African perspective on the war that’s having negative consequences for our continent.
Secondly, we’re probably the only group that has engaged the two leaders within a short space of time to put forward a very strong proposal and view that the war must end. But we also accompanied that broad proposal with a number of elements, which has to do with the recognition of the sovereignty of countries in terms of the UN (United Nations) charter. That we put forward unambiguously, and we spoke about the de-escalation of the conflict.
We also added that the humanitarian assistance must get to the people who are suffering in the war and part of that must be about the release of prisoners of war, as well as the release of the children who were taken out of Ukraine and to be returned back.
JEREMY MAGGS: Well, let’s get a broad perspective on the initiative. Joining us now is Thembisa Fakude, who is a researcher and director at Africa Asia Dialogues – a very warm welcome to you. Before we talk about the actual mission itself, the security bungle, I’m sure you’ll agree, was unfortunate and probably did nothing to enhance our global reputation.
THEMBISA FAKUDE: Yes, indeed. It was not only unfortunate, but actually quite disappointing that it was admitted by the organisers, at least the military operators, including Bheki Cele as well, when he was asked about this, that there were certain documents that were not carried by the security operators that were supposed to facilitate the security for the president, both in Ukraine and Russia.
That, for me, was a bit unprofessional and they admit, of course, that they had copies of the original documents. It’s problematic that you are in charge of organising such an enormous project and you decide to carry copies of original documents and other members of your team had original documents. As a result, the media, of course, was also disadvantaged and was not able to cover what it meant to cover both in Ukraine and Russia.
JEREMY MAGGS: So we’ve just heard from a fairly bullish President Ramaphosa saying that he is confident that both sides are willing to listen to African leaders. Do you think anything can come of this initiative or is it simply just a photo op?
THEMBISA FAKUDE: Well, I think something will come out of it, but interesting to have noted during that press conference that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted that the condition of Russia pulling out of the territories that they conquered from February 24 2022 still stands. So until that happens, he was very clear that there are no negotiations that are going be taking place.
But if you look at the ten-point peace plan that Cyril Ramaphosa has, it’s really broad strokes. It’s all about confidence building and other matters involving a release of prisoners and returning those children who were abducted from Ukraine into Russia. By the way, if that happens, we don’t know what impact that will have on the ICC (International Criminal Court) indictment on President Vladimir Putin.
JEREMY MAGGS: I’ve been looking at that ten-point plan and it includes items like, both leaders must listen to each other, the war must be settled through negotiations and diplomatic means. It goes on to say there must be a de-escalation of conflict on both sides. I mean, there’s nothing particularly original or riveting here, is there?
THEMBISA FAKUDE: Nothing, too broad stroke but I think what it’s meant to do it’s also meant to salvage the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) meeting because if you look at it, it’s about [the release] of prisoners and release of the children who were abducted by Russia from Ukraine.
This is the main indictment on Vladimir Putin, so if that does happen, it means that the ICC might actually reconsider its position on Vladimir Putin, and we might just see Vladimir Putin coming to South Africa. So, the other nine is probably just to send us on a wild goose chase while the main point is to try and save Vladimir Putin by ensuring that there’s a [release] of prisoners and the children who were abducted are returned to their parents in Ukraine.
JEREMY MAGGS: How would other countries be seeing this? Could for instance, this mission be seen as further entrenching perceptions that we are simply now part, a growing part, of Russia’s orbit?
THEMBISA FAKUDE: Well, I think so, I think there’s a theory that is gaining momentum, that this mission is basically a front of Vladimir Putin, who finds himself in a corner and having been forced to negotiate with Ukraine, but he can’t initiate those negotiations because he has to save face.
So he had to call on his friends in Africa to initiate this discussion. That’s the first point. The other point, of course, is that we have made so many missteps in the beginning, and I hope that President Cyril Ramaphosa, notwithstanding what has happened, he doesn’t allow the minister (Naledi Pandor) and the Department of International Relations and Cooperation to once again be the main or the chief spokesperson in this regard because many of the misstatements and missteps happened in that department.
JEREMY MAGGS: So what’s the next step, do you think?
THEMBISA FAKUDE: I think they’ll continue. The next step is to continue with these initiatives, but of course, it’s good news that for once we have African countries initiating negotiations at international level. We always have the importation of negotiators into African countries, for the first time we have Africans going to Europe and Asia to negotiate peace. That in itself is positive, and I think it’s going to an extent embolden Cyril Ramaphosa as a negotiator and as a statesman and hopefully [he] succeeds.
JEREMY MAGGS: Thembisa Fakude, thank you very much.
