What will be the fallout of revenge
Wars have never been fought without incurring wounds or suffering loss of lives and property.
Usually, there are casualties of different dimensions on either side of the conflict.
But when one of the sides of the conflict is the Aggressor, casualty and losses are predominantly high for the defensive side.
In the matter between Russia and Ukraine, which is the ugly spectacle the world is beholding presently, the former is the invader.
Therefore, much damages and losses are incurred by Ukraine.
Military analysts are torn between the justification or morality of turning the table on Russia, the aggressor. It is already worrisome the gruesome pictures coming out from Ukraine.
Putin’s soldiers have the notoriety of killing soldiers and slaughtering civilians wantonly (the case of Syria leaves so much to be desired).
Some believe that if these things are so when Putin calls it ‘Special Military Operation’ against Ukraine, what to expect when he declares a full-scale war is better left to the imagination. It becomes worse if it turns to an unwinnable one, war of attrition like President Bush’s ‘War on Terror’. Baghdad, the capital city of Iraq and other parts of the country ultimately became ruined.
Casualties from February 24 to date
Civilian casualties recorded for Ukraine as at May 13 by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) was 3,573. In the same period, 241 children were accounted for as dead. Those who suffered injuries were 3,816 with 357 children.
The OHCHR believes the number could be higher.
The siege is still on and much more brutal than in the era before the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv. In all that is considered equitable and justified, Ukraine will not be out of line if it takes on Russia ‘tit for tat’.
For instance, the gory sight of mass graves at Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, where about 400 men, women and children – all civilians – raises enough gall to trigger revenge.
A restraint for now
There are too many reasons Ukraine would advance to go into revenge mode and justifiably so.
But there are also sufficient reasons Zelensky and his men should not undertake to do this.
If Ukraine decides to retaliate directly on Russian soil, it will lose the weight of ‘victimhood’ that attracts goodwill from around the globe.
Putin would likely go further to tell the world that he is justified accusing Ukraine of the existence of fascists and Nazi elements. Much as this may not be true, President Putin will be strutting all over the place, beating the chest on how right he was.
Again, it is likely that Ukraine will lose the worldwide support it had been enjoying. The financial boost being received from everywhere, now running into billions of dollars, may begin to dry up.
Although there appeared a report early April by Russia charging Ukraine of crossing into its territory using attack helicopters in a night operation. It claimed that their supply lines were hit. However Ukraine refuted that it crossed into Russian territory.
Zelensky and his forces may bite more than it can chew if he takes on the invaders in their own turf.
Military strategists think it is good sense for Ukraine to keep doing their defensive best.
Keeping the battle at this level and systematically destroying Russian hardware, though at the cost of Ukrainian lives, whittles down Putin’s power.
Non-escalation of the war might restrain Putin from deploying strategic arms and keep Europe from being plunged into an Inferno.
So far the EU and NATO may do well to steadily fund Ukraine to keep Russia at bay, at least for now.
